Good Times

[Devari]

Britain could have survived, I do believe. The BoB was before Russian involvement, obviously, and Britain demonstrated that it could hold its own. Germany would probably never have been able to invade the UK successfully. Of course, I seriously doubt that Britain could have invaded the mainland either.

Of course, conflict between Russia and Germany was virtually assured. Hitler had wanted the lands of the USSR for "living-space", and also wanted the "subhuman" slavs for labour purposes and the such. It can easily be argued that taking over Russia was part of his master plan in the first place.

[edit]

So, basically, what I'm saying is that Britain isn't necessarily dog meat, but the Commonwealth nations certainly would not have won the war without Russian help.

[The Beatles]

I think Churchill said it right when the RAF's superiority became apparent and invasion became less probable:

"Hitler has received his first, and probably fatal, check."

[Devari]

Yeah, and by "winning the war" I mean defeating Germany. Britain was probably somewhat safe after BoB, at least for a while.

[Gen. Volkov]

1. FINE! Trade it is. The fact remains that they recieved planes from the US that they could not have built themselves in the same amount of time, given that they were already building planes at max capacity. Paid for or not is irrelevant. Do you dispute that planes from the United States arrived in Britain during the BoB? That is my definition of help. Maybe not aid, but help.

3. A Russia that was truly neutral without either side having to station
significant numbers of troops to guard, England is dog meat, if not, I agree it is unclear, England would retain it's advantages, but if no Barbarossa, Germany would retain the cream of it's military, and would possibly still develop those wonder weapons, such as the V-2, and the Me-262, but this time without anything to limit their production. But then again, those were somewhat of a desperation move, so that's why I agree that its unclear.

It's also unclear whether Russia could have survived without American help, and without the bombing carried out from Britain. Given the superiority of German tactics and the eventual superiority of their equipment coupled with no lack of it because of no daylight bombing campaign, and the limited damage the night raids did, Germany has a much better chance of winning against Russia. Russia would still have that huge industrial capacity, but a properly equipped German army may have been able to withstand and even beat back even that tide of Russian men and machines.

But I digress. I think you overestimate the superiority of the RAF, alot of the reason they come out on top is that the Germans had no way to replace their experienced war-hardened pilots as they slowly got shot down over Britain, meanwhile, assuming a British pilot survived, all he had to do was walk to the nearest farm, and ring up a taxi to take him back the airfield. So the English pilots skill gradually overcame the fact that their machines were essentially equal. This is in addition to Goering's rather stupid shift of bombing priorities from the RAF itself to London.

Small digression: If you look at the reports from both sides, great exagerations of plane kills aside, the RAF was pretty much on its last legs when Goering suddenly shifted away from concentrating on the RAF. (This was at least in part because the RAF should have collapsed about 1 month before that if you went by the reported plane kill counts, and Goering was getting frustrated that they hadn't yet, but that was just a part of the decision). Had he kept it up the experience of the British pilots wouldn't have mattered, the RAF would have been destroyed as an organize fighting force.

Aside from what's mentioned here, I overall think we are in agreement. It's been fun, but I can't keep it up much longer. We'll start rearguing the old stuff and it will never end, so on the final little tiddly hypothetical bits, lets just agree to slightly differ in our opinions. K?

[The Beatles]

I do agree with you that it should end, but it's also unfair to either of us if any of us has the last word. So I'll make some concessions, and you do too please. As we've been doing all along.

Modified statement: Given the Luftwaffe's stupidity in not demolishing the RAF when it could have with some more intensive bombing (which "stupidity" was due to the clear superiority of British intelligence, btw!), the RAF won the BOB without US aid. I don't know whether they purchased American planes, so I'll look that up later. From what I understand, planes were not actually purchased during the BOB. And as we've agree, lend-lease was too late to affect the BOB.

I absolutely agree with you on the Russia stuff. Well put.

Yes, it's been huge fun. I hope I've been able to slightly shake the belief -- which Neo expressed too -- that Britain was a weak and defenceless nation at the start of the war, terrified by German advances and powerless to stop them elsewhere. Au contraire, they were quite agressive, and often successful, although German tactics (not aerial) were superior initially (until the Allies copied them).

[Devari]

Is this "weak, crippled" Britain some kind of American propaganda? Never heard of that argument before this! :*laughs*:

[neobaron]

Numbers do my talking for me.

Without the Russian distraction, Germany would have eventually broken Englands spine... even with the commonwealth behind them.

[The Beatles]

I don't think so. You were using words before ("terrified" comes to mind) which were emotionally charged but factually incorrect, as I demonstrated to you. (i.e. they sent tanks to the Africa, Crete, Greece.)

As for numbers; cite them.

[Gen. Volkov]

Still some disagreements, but I shall keep them to myself. Nice sum up Beatles. And I never thought Britain was weak and defenseless, I simply thought they didn't have a prayer against the German war machine in an offensive mode without American help. But I'll concede the point about the BoB. It was won by the British with limited help if any.

I think Neo is refering to the simply gigantic numerical edge the Germans had over the British. The BoB hurt the Luftwaffe no doubt, but they still retained ALOT of planes at that point. Then they went and lost them all on the Russian front, and couldn't make many more because we (Americans) were busy bombing the shiite out of their airplane factories.

And finally, I think we all have to agree that even though Britain won, the BoB took alot out of them. In terms of men, machines, and civilian population. They weren't weak and crippled, but they certainly were not in fighting trim.

[Devari]

My thoughts: (Britain includes the Commonwealth and Polish, for simplicity. The Australians, Canadians, and Polish were non-negligible contributers.)

Britain v. Germany - Stalemate, ending either with an uneasy peace or an eventual successful German invasion years down the road.
Britian & Russia v. Germany - It takes longer, but the Allies win eventually. Probably even more loss of life, though, and Russia may dominate even more territory.
Britain & US v. Germany - People will disagree with me, but I'd still say Stalemate. Much more favourable outcome, though, and either a more lasting peace or an uneasy unwillingness for Germany to attack Britain.
Russia v. Germany - Stalemate with some territory under German control, or an eventual Russian victory with enormous human cost.

[The Beatles]

Yep, I agree with you on those points Volkov. The BOB certainly took a lot out of the air force and somewhat out of industry. While the U-boats were destructive for trade. (That said, land forces were less affected: sent tanks to Wavell, and planes to Greece.) But we basically agree on this.

Now to disagree with Devari!
No, seriously. I have to disagree with your points on UK vs Germany and US, UK vs Germany. UK vs Germany, long-term, would have had to mean a UK victory, or a stalemate. But the invasion had very little chance of succeeding, IMHO.
And as to UK, US vs Germany??? Come on, the US was the most heavily industrialized nation! Heck, they bailed the Russians out with industrial production! Germany had very little (relatively) industry: only the Ruhr, I mean they couldn't just take over industry in the countries they occupied. And the US's industrial machine wasn't even in swing by the time they were sending large amounts of machines to UK & Russia in late '41 and onwards.

[Gen. Volkov]

*Nod* The US industrial capacity was absolutely gigantic. No nation in the world had anything like it. Even Russia. For example, when the assembly lines hit their stride in late '42 early '43 they were pumping more bulldozers in one MONTH than Japan was making in an entire YEAR. In airplanes the US built 2 TIMES as many as the next highest producer, the USSR. Between '41 and '43 we QUADRUPLED the total output of our airplane factories. In 1944 alone we built almost as many planes as the Germans built in the entire WAR.

I'll have to agree with Devari on the UK vs Germany though.

[neobaron]

England had, on its little island, something like 14 combat ready divisions.

Germany posted something like 90+ on the eastern front at all times, plus whatever was off saving Italy and those posted on the Atlantic wall + an entire army just sitting around waiting for an invasion (26th).

---

Assume Russia capitulates.

So England plops down with 14 divisions, a rather large air force, and whatever remnants of naval glory they once had patrolling the barricade line between Scapa Flow and Norway. Germany is sitting on industry and slavs taken from Soviet Russia, and whatever other military goodies it took from them (please note that the majority of the Russian navy at this time was based in the Black sea, and the rest was coming out of St. Petersburg... being mostly antiquated submarines, but not un-usable)

Germany's armies are downsized, and a few are sent south into the Balkans to help our Bulgarian and Italian frineds deal with English-backed greece... Southern Europe falls to Hitler, North Africe is only a ride in a newly apprehended russian ship away for battle hardened Eastern front vets to finish off whoever is leading the Allied efforts there by now (Assuming the Italians arent completely inept and the collapse of the Soviet Union causes England to withdraw a bit)...

The lack of suitable bases to launch bombers from means italy cant be softened up... Patton cant get into Morroco, and the Atlantic suddenly gets a whole lot bigger.

Peron (or whatever his name is) grows balls, sides with hitler, and actually declares war on Brazil (see near-fatal-for-USA-event Silver War) so the US has to withdraw its attentiopn from europe to watch its own hemisphere...

Maybe it takes another year... maybe it takes another 3, but re-geared German industry (which no longer has to deal with a ground war) WILL undoubtably overtake the tiny, ally-less island in both Naval and Aeronautical output... take two on the BoB with Germany paying attention 100% and BOOMHEADSHOT Germany wins WW2.

Even with the US sending goodies to the island, you gotta think... lack of interest in the east means an assload more defense on the west... any thoughts of a Western European invasion site are blown to tiny bits.

Also, dont forget about our little friends down in newly Nationalist Spain... Franco owed his left testicle to Hitler, but wouldnt side unless he saw benefit (Franco wasnt stupid... he knew the outcome from day one) which would have been re-aquisition of properties outside of europe, plus those within Europe (Gibralter, namely) and the chance to eat portugal, which had maintained its anti-german policies from the first world war (generous trade offers from germany which recieved an FU)

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All of these things were dependant on the outcome of the Russian conflict... had hitler won, he would have had a /LOT/ more friends worldwide...

So, i'll say it again with more words...

Due to the political nature of the nations other than germany which could potentially become involved if barbarrosa continued to go like it did in the beginning, british politicians were undoubtably petrified to make a move... especially an offensive one... against Germany.

Even the little things they did (aforementioned Operation: Jubilee, and the dambusters raid) seemed pointless... neither of those were succesful, and the destruction of the dams on the Ruhr cost a great deal of money and patience in training for a less than acceptable outcome... anything they hoped to damage was back up and running within a month.

[Nohc]

(I like how the topic changed so quickly...)

[neobaron]

Would you prefer we go back to the original nastiness of this or are you making a reference to not understanding the context of my last post?

(I woke up at 4.30am today to go fishing, im not all here... so im not being sarcastic)